A Close Contest – Kerridge vs Nelmes – Preferences To Decide

The 2024 Newcastle mayoral election is proving to be one of the tightest and most competitive in recent memory, with the incumbent Lord Mayor, Nuatali Nelmes, locked in a close contest with independent challenger Ross Kerridge. While Kerridge has made significant inroads in the mayoral race, leading with 33.34% of the first-preference votes, compared to 31.97% for Nelmes, the local councillor elections have told a different story, with the Australian Labor Party (ALP) maintaining a strong grip across all wards.

The Close Contest: Kerridge vs. Nelmes

Data below captured 16/9/2024 at 11:05am

In 2024, Ross Kerridge emerged as a formidable candidate, securing 21,748 votes (33.34% of first-preference votes), positioning him narrowly ahead of Nelmes, who garnered 20,855 votes (31.97%). The two candidates are separated by just 893 votes, making the election far from decided. With preferences still to be counted, both camps will be anxiously awaiting the final tally, as the distribution of preferences from minor candidates will likely be the deciding factor.

Nuatali Nelmes, who has served as Newcastle’s Lord Mayor since 2014, has seen a notable decline in her vote share compared to the 2021 election, where she won 42,052 votes (41.94%). This represents a 9.97% swing against her and a loss of over 21,000 votes. The significant drop in support suggests that some voters may be looking for a change after a decade of Labor control, and Kerridge’s independent campaign has clearly resonated with those seeking an alternative.

Ross Kerridge’s Breakthrough

Kerridge, a familiar figure in Newcastle politics, previously attempted to challenge Nelmes from within the Labor Party. After failing to secure the necessary backing, he broke away to form the independent group ‘Our Newcastle’. His decision to run as an independent has paid off, with his campaign managing to capture a significant portion of the vote that likely would have gone to previous independent candidates, such as John Church, who did not run in 2024 but secured 27.25% of the vote in 2021.

Kerridge’s strong performance indicates that many voters are looking for a fresh perspective. His 33.34% share of the vote suggests he has successfully tapped into dissatisfaction with the current administration, positioning himself as a viable alternative to Labor’s long-standing dominance.

Greens and Liberals in 2024

Charlotte McCabe, the Greens candidate for mayor, received 16.83% of the vote (10,980 votes), a slight increase in percentage terms compared to the 14.22% that John Mackenzie received in 2021. However, in absolute terms, McCabe received 3,276 fewer votes than Mackenzie, suggesting a small but solid base of Green support that remains consistent across elections.

On the Liberal front, Callum Pull won 12.23% of the vote (7,980 votes), which represents a modest increase from Jenny Barrie’s 11.65% in 2021. However, this percentage gain was not accompanied by a corresponding increase in total votes, with Pull receiving 3,703 fewer votes than Barrie. The Liberals’ reduced presence in the mayoral race could make their preferences critical in determining the final result.

Preferences Will Be Key

As it stands, Ross Kerridge leads the first-preference count by a slim margin, but the focus will now shift to how preferences flow from the Greens, Liberals, and other minor candidates. Historically, Greens preferences have tended to favor Labor candidates, but with Kerridge positioning himself as an independent progressive alternative, it’s possible that a portion of the Greens vote will flow to him.

Likewise, Liberal preferences are harder to predict. While Liberal voters might traditionally align with an independent like Kerridge, some may prefer to support the status quo under Nelmes.

Local Councillor Elections: A Strong Showing for Labor

While the mayoral contest remains tight, the ALP has performed well in the local council elections, maintaining a strong presence across all four wards. This is a marked contrast to the closer mayoral race, with Labor continuing to dominate in the council chambers.

Ward 1:

• ALP: 32.03% (3,960 votes), led by Declan Clausen, showing strong support for Labor. This was slightly higher than the ALP’s result in the mayoral race, where Nelmes garnered 31.97% across the city.
• Greens: 29.25% (3,616 votes), with Charlotte McCabe leading the ticket, who also ran for mayor and received 16.83% city-wide.
• Independent (Kerridge): 19.97% (2,469 votes), demonstrating Kerridge’s significant local support. However, his independent bid for councillor in Ward 1 slightly underperformed his city-wide mayoral vote of 33.34%​.

Ward 2:

• ALP: 31.03% (4,058 votes), another solid result for Labor, mirroring their performance in Ward 1.
• Greens: 24.12% (3,155 votes), slightly less than their Ward 1 result but still maintaining a strong presence.
• Liberals: 25.39% (3,321 votes), performing better here than in Ward 1 and significantly outpacing the Liberals’ showing in the mayoral race, where Callum Pull received only 12.23% city-wide.

Ward 3:

• ALP: 38.64% (4,588 votes), a dominant showing for the ALP in Ward 3, outperforming their result in the mayoral race and cementing their local councillor strength. This also reflects Nelmes’ strong personal popularity in this ward.
• Greens: 25.65% (3,046 votes), maintaining a respectable share but falling behind the ALP.
• Independents: 27.65% (3,283 votes), indicating that Kerridge’s independent base remains strong here, though not enough to surpass the ALP.

Ward 4:

• ALP: 44.03% (5,144 votes), Labor’s strongest showing across all wards, clearly indicating strong support in this area.
• Greens: 16.00% (1,869 votes), a much weaker performance compared to other wards.
• Liberals: 22.61% (2,642 votes), performing consistently, though still behind the ALP​.

A Tumultuous History Between Nelmes and Kerridge

The rivalry between Nelmes and Kerridge is well-documented. Kerridge previously attempted to challenge Nelmes from within the Labor Party but ultimately failed. This led him to break away and form his independent group, Our Newcastle, allowing him to challenge the incumbent on his terms. Kerridge has been a vocal critic of what he calls Nelmes’ ‘glam projects,’ particularly her involvement with high-profile initiatives such as the Supercars event. His campaign has appealed to voters seeking an alternative vision for Newcastle’s future, one that focuses more on grassroots development and less on large-scale commercial projects.

Nelmes, meanwhile, has defended her record, highlighting her achievements in urban renewal and infrastructure investments, which she argues have transformed Newcastle into a more vibrant and modern city. Despite her defense, the swing against her in this election shows that some voters may feel her time in office has run its course.

Conclusion: A Waiting Game

The 2024 Newcastle mayoral election is set to go down to the wire, with preferences from minor parties expected to play a decisive role. While Ross Kerridge leads by a narrow margin, Nuatali Nelmes remains a strong contender. Given Labor’s dominance in the ward councillor elections, it’s clear that the ALP still commands significant local support. However, Kerridge’s impressive showing in the mayoral race indicates that many voters are eager for change.

As the vote count continues and preferences are distributed, Newcastle will soon find out whether it will continue under Nelmes’ leadership or take a new direction with Kerridge at the helm.

Stay tuned for further updates as this closely fought election unfolds.